“We talking about practice. Not a game, not a game, not a game. We talkin’ bout practice.” –The Answer
This time of year, we’re not talking about practice, but we’re talking about playoffs, and more specifically we’re talking about home court advantage (HCA) for the Denver Nuggets. Since January, the importance of HCA for this Nuggets team has been stressed repeatedly as a generalization and without validation.
It’s no secret: No team in the NBA wants to play in Denver. Beyond the obvious reasons of playing at altitude, familiarity of arena, and fans, this Nuggets team has some serious mojo when playing at home. Developing confidence is HUGE for a young team entering the playoffs. This season was not supposed to be a deep playoff run for one of the youngest teams in the NBA. In January when Masai Ujiri said on a local radio program that this team isn’t ready for the playoffs, he had to realize that this season was to get experience and chemistry to his young core of players and work on championship runs in the subsequent seasons.
Instead the team exceeded expectations by going on a 15 game winning streak, posting a 35-3 home court record, and moving into the 3rd seed in the very competitive Western Conference. A 3rd seed assures this team HCA in the 1st round of the playoffs against likely opponent Golden State Warriors; the Houston Rockets are 1 game behind GSW in standings. While no round of the playoffs is a walk in the park, Denver at home is almost a lock to win each game against their first round opponent. On the road, when the Nuggets can dictate their up-tempo style of play, their chance of winning is higher than the opponent. Road wins at Portland, Sacramento, Phoenix, Chicago, OKC and Utah, as well as a competitive 1-pt loss at San Antonio, are proof that Denver’s play on the road has been exemplary lately. The 24 point loss at New Orleans was an aberration.
Stating the obvious is all fun and stuff, but what’s the point? Simply put the Nuggets should walk through the first round against GS or HOU. Those teams are not good road teams, so Denver can win their home court games and take the series. In the second round the situation gets more tricky. If things work out as expected, Oklahoma City advances to face Denver in the second round while holding HCA for the series. If the series versus OKC goes seven games, the Nuggets can win all three of their home court games, while having FOUR opportunities to steal at game on the road. Again, when the Nuggets dictate the tempo of the game, they can win most games whether on the road and certainly at home. Point being, OKC can very likely lose a home game to Denver, and thus lose the series.
Certainly playing at home for Denver is not a sure win. Factors like Lawson’s health, Wilson Chandler’s larger role, and free throw shooting will be key deeper into the playoffs. With a forced up-tempo game, deep bench and home court advantage, George Karl’s team has a very legitimate chance to succeed like no other Nuggets team.
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