Thursday, March 21, 2013

Nuggets salary cap 2013-14 (speculation)



First of all, a lot can change from the time of this writing to next NBA season.  Since the beginning of the 2012-13 season, opinions of this Nuggets team have changed dramatically, and they will change once more after the winning streak is snapped (currently 13 games) and pending the outcome of the playoffs.

Looking into next season’s salary cap, the Nuggets’ front office is very aware they are over the cap.  Being over the cap isn’t a death sentence like it is in the NFL, but owners really don’t want to pay that fine except for Jerry Buss.  Next year’s roster and payroll is fairly similar to the 2012-13 season, except Ty Lawson’s new deal gives him about $10M raise.  Accordingly the Nuggets’ cap figure ($73.7M) is about $10M over the projected 2013-14 cap.

Where will the front office free up $10M+ to avoid cap penalties?  Well, cutting Ty Lawson isn’t an option as he’s a part of the future of this team.  Riding this process of chain thinking, who else is an untouchable on the roster? 

Let’s just scroll down the roster:

Ty Lawson and Dino Gallinari are the only other player to be safe from cost saving moves.  This team will be built around the tempo that Lawson and Gallinari dictate.  When their game is on, they’re unstoppable. Even George Karl’s comments that these two players are starting to develop leadership qualities indicates the team wants to build around these players. The Nuggets have them locked down under contract for the next 3+ years.



Javale McGee may be in that category except he’s just so raw despite his high cap figure ($10+M). While people are perplexed at how a big man coming off the bench averaging 18 mins per game can warrant that amount of money, his contract reflects the going rate for big men in this league.  More importantly, McGee continues to develop on both ends of the court.  At times he can be dominant around the rim on defense, but his offensive game is just a series of unrefined moves that make giraffes giggle at the awkwardness.  Lots of potential here, and as long as he continues to work hard and stay out of trouble, he’ll be considered a big part of the future roster.



Kosta Koufos has really stepped up his game since last year. Last year, he was coming off the bench behind Timofey Mozgov.  This year at $3M/year, his play has been a bargain for the Nuggets.  Coaching has really helped him develop as a scorer around the basket.  His footwork on defense is really good which helps him be in position on his opponent in the paint, or help on pick and roll defense.  No doubt he’s a part of the 2013-14 team and maybe beyond.



Kenneth Faried is another bargain for the team because he’s still under his rookie contract.  He is locked down next year and has a team option in 2014-15.  When Faried gets his game going, his energy has more impact on his team’s offense and defense than any other player in the league.  Inconsistency and defensive lapses are Faried’s biggest shortcomings right now.



Wilson Chandler has a new deal keeping him under contract for about $6M per year.  If he stays healthy, he’s a starter that is coming off the bench.  In Denver’s altitude, having a strong bench is really important because the team can blow open a lead or force opponent’s to bring their starters back early.



Andre Miller is a luxury for George Karl, as he is a starting point guard that no other teams wanted due to his age.  The Nuggets have him running their second unit’s offense really well, while giving him playing time late in games.  He plays within his abilities better than anyone else in the league, but sometimes doesn’t put in the effort on defense which won’t be tolerated in the playoffs.  Miller is under contract next season for $5M.



Andre Iguodala has a player option for next season.  If he decides to stay with the Nuggets, Iguodala’s 2013-14 cap figure is $16M and allows him to be an unrestricted free agent the following season.  His list of intangibles that he brings to the court is lengthy (besides shooting free throws) and warrants a high contract.  Plus having a defensive stopper in the Western Conference to match up against Kobe, Durant, Westbrook and Harden is not a luxury- it’s a necessity to give a team a chance to win every night.



Iguodala is 30 years old and hitting his prime as a player.  His agents will push for a big payday during his next contract negotiations to reflect his market value.  If the Nuggets go deep into the playoffs this year (second round, maybe deeper), the media will target him as their spokesperson, a role which he does fairly well.  This recognition combined with 2012 Olympic medal winner status will put his market value at its highest point in his career.  Again, his player option is $16M; that figure will be the low-end of his expected annual salary.  Length of contract is a consideration too, so he’ll want a 4 year deal around $20M by the fourth year.  That type of contract will handcuff the Nuggets’ front office from being able to re-sign other contracts in the future. 


No doubt that Iguodala is worth that type of contract if a team has a legitimate scorer.  He doesn’t bring in very many points per game (12.8 pts/gm) and isn’t a great outside shooter (31% from 3-pt).  Instead he brings a defensive stopper to match up on most team’s best players which motivates his teammates to play better defense.  His transition game is very good; his passing ability in the open court or interior is exceptional with a knack for breaking down defenses off the dribble. A few games this year he’s made the clutch game winner. 

Here’s one scenario I can see happening:
Iguodala renegotiates a deal as part of a sign and trade to another team, hopefully an Eastern Conference team like maybe Cleveland.  In return the Nuggets can ask for draft picks or young prospects.  Denver fans will scream wails of “What are they doing?!?!” without taking any time to think it out.  Masai Uriji will have some cap freedom to sign Corey Brewer (if he chooses to stay) to a $6M/yr deal, or shop around for an outside shooter like Kyle Korver.

Again, this mental exercise is all just speculation.  Things happen that can change the shape of a team in just a couple weeks or months.  The key for the Nuggets right now is to have the patience to develop their young talent while maintaining flexibility to keep or discard players as necessary.  Of course, if the Kroenkes decide to snub the salary cap restriction, maybe they keep Iduodala and everyone else on the roster while paying the cap penalty, and this narration of words is nothing more than a waste of time.